Project 01 / Raw Material Market Intelligence & Sourcing Strategy Signals

Aluminum Market Intelligence.

Stay alert to upstream material market signals and prepare sourcing strategies proactively.

Case focus: A00 Aluminum
Aluminum as a case study Aluminum ingots are an important upstream material in the complete-machine supply chain. Monitoring market shifts can help sourcing teams act earlier and secure more favorable costs.

The sourcing focus

Identify upstream material market shifts early
to prepare complete-machine cost management and sourcing responses.

The aim is transparent decision support: trace each assessment back to evidence, then translate it into a commercial question or a sourcing action for review.

01 / Historical Market Prices

A00 Aluminum Ingot

2024–2025 · Late-month observations
Period-end benchmark · CNY/t22,046.7Late December 2025
Approx. 1M change+2.96%Late Dec vs late Nov
Approx. 3M change+6.40%Late Dec vs late Sep
Approx. 6M change+6.68%Late Dec vs late Jun

Historical prices & market context

Sample range: 20,578.3 – 22,046.7

Feature preview: notable monthly price moves can be summarized with market reports and emailed to subscribers.

2000020500210002150022000225002025-06-21/2025-06-30: 20,666.706/302025-07-01/2025-07-10: 20,732.907/102025-07-11/2025-07-20: 20,591.72025-07-21/2025-07-31: 20,767.52025-08-01/2025-08-10: 20,578.308/102025-08-11/2025-08-20: 20,633.82025-08-21/2025-08-31: 20,741.42025-09-01/2025-09-10: 20,686.309/102025-09-11/2025-09-20: 20,894.32025-09-21/2025-09-30: 20,720.02025-10-11/2025-10-20: 20,906.72025-10-21/2025-10-31: 21,098.82025-11-01/2025-11-10: 21,418.311/102025-11-11/2025-11-20: 21,660.02025-11-21/2025-11-30: 21,413.32025-12-01/2025-12-10: 21,862.512/102025-12-11/2025-12-20: 21,796.72025-12-21/2025-12-31: 22,046.712/31

Market context · reported views

Price labels compare the previous observation: within ±0.5% is stable; otherwise rising or falling. The first observation has no comparison. Reported views provide period context, not verified causes of the average-price move.

Manual / Market events

No standalone events entered. Dated events, sources and supplier-impact reviews can be added later.

Source: NBS-published A00 aluminum circulation-market prices, including distribution costs, margins and taxes. Not supplier quotes or a daily SMM benchmark. Dates identify period ends, not daily trades. 1 / 3 / 6M changes compare late-month observations; they are not exact 30 / 90 / 180-day returns.

Period-return volatility: 0.96% (sample standard deviation of 16 returns, not annualized). Early October has no observation; the gap remains and its cross-gap return is excluded from volatility.

Market report sources · 2024–2025
Data and sources (18 observations)
Six-month procurement lead-time perspective

Review medium-term cost changes alongside demand plans, supplier quote reference periods, price-adjustment mechanisms and delivery lead times. A one-month move alone does not determine stocking. This history supports retrospective analysis, not a six-month price forecast.

View two-year data, sources and downloads
Month / late periodCNY / tonneSource / status
2024-0118,955.0NBS original release
2024-0218,800.0NBS original release
2024-0319,352.9NBS original release
2024-0420,396.7NBS original release
2024-0521,001.3NBS original release
2024-0620,196.7NBS original release
2024-0719,140.0NBS original release
2024-0819,677.5NBS original release
2024-0919,990.0NBS original release
2024-1020,847.5NBS original release
2024-1120,542.9NBS original release
2024-1219,780.0NBS original release
2025-01——
2025-0220,568.0NBS original release
2025-0320,675.7NBS original release
2025-0419,952.9NBS original release
2025-0520,330.0NBS original release
2025-0620,666.7NBS original release
2025-0720,767.5NBS original release
2025-0820,741.4NBS original release
2025-0920,720.0NBS original release
2025-1021,098.8NBS original release
2025-1121,413.3NBS original release
2025-1222,046.7NBS original release
Download CSVDownload JSON
Data maintenance and update method

Verified 8 October 2026. Observation coverage is fixed to 2024–2025; source: NBS A00 aluminum circulation-market prices. Update process: locate release → check product, unit, period and price → record source and verification date → check gaps/duplicates → recalculate and publish. Updates are manually verified; no automatic refresh is scheduled.

PeriodCNY / tonneSource
2025-06-21/2025-06-3020,666.7Original release
2025-07-01/2025-07-1020,732.9Original release
2025-07-11/2025-07-2020,591.7Original release
2025-07-21/2025-07-3120,767.5Original release
2025-08-01/2025-08-1020,578.3Original release
2025-08-11/2025-08-2020,633.8Original release
2025-08-21/2025-08-3120,741.4Original release
2025-09-01/2025-09-1020,686.3Original release
2025-09-11/2025-09-2020,894.3Original release
2025-09-21/2025-09-3020,720.0Original release
2025-10-11/2025-10-2020,906.7Original release
2025-10-21/2025-10-3121,098.8Original release
2025-11-01/2025-11-1021,418.3Original release
2025-11-11/2025-11-2021,660.0Original release
2025-11-21/2025-11-3021,413.3Original release
2025-12-01/2025-12-1021,862.5Original release
2025-12-11/2025-12-2021,796.7Original release
2025-12-21/2025-12-3122,046.7Original release
Download data JSON

02 / Next 6–12 months · Aluminum outlook

Aluminum outlook: supportive, with conditions for relief.

The selected reports generally point to upward pressure on aluminum prices over the medium to long term. In the short term, stock builds may create opportunities for prices to pull back. Procurement teams can prepare responses early while watching for those windows.

Case date: 31 December 2025 · Outlook: next 6–12 months · Synthesis of selected reports.

Supply / capacity

Medium-term constraint

China’s capacity ceiling and overseas power availability constrain supply flexibility. Indonesian capacity ramp-up is a key indicator of potential easing.

ING · Aluminium outlook 2026 · 2025-12-08

Inventory

Potential near-term relief

Year-end reporting describes stock builds from arrivals and weak orders. Seasonal accumulation can ease physical tightness without proving that a longer-term deficit has disappeared.

铜冠金源 / Jinyuan · 铝周报 · 2025-12-29
Temporary pressure or a persistent condition?

Corrections may ease near-term procurement pressure, while capacity and power constraints can outlast a six-month lead time. The base-case response is to prepare for sustained firm prices while retaining flexibility if conditions ease.

Review triggers: persistent stock builds with weaker orders; faster Indonesian ramp-up; changes to China’s capacity policy; or improved power supply and contract availability.

Scope: the 2026 outlook is presented without using realized 2026 prices. LME dollar prices, domestic benchmarks and product quotes differ by currency, region and cost pass-through.

03 / AI-assisted procurement responses · fixed-case draft

Prepare for firm prices while preserving flexibility.

AI prepared these options from the cited reports and six-month lead time for human review. This page displays pre-generated content and has no live AI service. Without actual BOMs, demand plans, quotes and supplier inventory, it does not recommend coverage percentages, stocking quantities or promised savings.

01

Discuss earlier supplier material stocking

Applies when demand is reasonably firm, aluminum-related exposure is confirmed and suppliers can cooperate.

Rationale: a supportive medium-term backdrop combined with a roughly six-month lead time. Discuss staged stocking of critical materials or parts rather than buying ingots directly.

Before implementation

Agree ownership, storage, financing and cancellation responsibilities; compare total stocking costs with potential price exposure.

02

Negotiate a defined price-lock period

Applies when reference periods, pass-through ratios and delivery volumes can be validated.

Compare durations and staged coverage for confirmed demand, retaining flexibility for uncertain volumes.

Before implementation

Specify premiums, quantity bands, expiry and renegotiation if prices fall; separate material costs from other product costs.

03

Keep staged coverage and review windows

Applies when orders remain uncertain or inventory and capacity developments weaken the firm-price scenario.

Limit one-off coverage, confirm demand on a rolling basis and review costs periodically. Discuss symmetric pass-through of upstream price moves.

Before implementation

Adjust coverage if lock premiums or inventory costs exceed the agreed risk budget. Set review points around internal plans and supplier terms.

Future development / feature preview

Material trends → product BOMs & cost models

Example prompt: 52 complete-machine models contain aluminum-related parts.

“52” is an illustrative interface number, not an actual count. No BOM or supplier cost data is connected.

Explore the separate cost model

The new case uses simulated switches and servers; it is not linked to this aluminum series or actual BOMs.

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PROJECT 02

Industry & Sourcing Intelligence

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Sourcing Cost Reduction & Management BI

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